Happy Europe day

 Progressive European Party

Happy Europe day 😎everyone 

What happens next

 Progressive European Party

Is it time to watch it all unravel

The agreement that is being made for the transition period gives us the right to sign trade deals that will come online when the transition period ends in 2020. We at last can find out if all the talk of “we can trade with the rest of the world” has any substance. Of course we can and will trade with the rest of the world, the test is will any of the deals we get be any improvement on how we trade now.

The time frame of twenty one months from march next year to the end of 2020 is short. Most trade deals take longer than this, therefore because we will be desperate we are likely to be taken to the cleaners by most potential partners who have the luxury of having time on their side. As every month ticks by we will be in a worsening position to make deals from. Almost certainly we will have to take things we wouldn't otherwise want in order to clinch a deal. For example American meat products that are not imported now because they do not pass EU safety and animal welfare standards.

Which then brings us to the border in Ireland. We have also agreed hand on heart, no hard border. This is simply not possible if the standards are not the same on both sides. Electronic tagging is possible like we have in supermarkets when the alarm rings if you try and walk out without paying. But tags can be removed. And how can you stop someone putting a few crates of Irish whiskey unseen in the back a potato truck. It will be easy for someone to put contraband in their shopping bag and take a bus across the border. It is simply not possible to have differing standards with the EU without customs checks. 

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With Ireland being in the single market they also have the free movement of people from the EU. Without passport controls on the border any and every EU citizen who should wish to can, via Ireland, enter the UK. With an open border, business will be able to work on either side and therefore will have to follow the same standards. In short, we will need to keep EU standards on all imported goods, on our own manufacturing and on all service industries. As well as maintaining the freedom of movement. We will have to remain permanently under the EU’s sphere of influence. This is the only way it is possible to have an open border. 

The biggest trade deal of all we will need to make is with the EU itself. Food security is the biggest concern, a quarter of all our food is imported from the EU and half of all our trade is also with the EU. 

There only seems to be two possible outcomes, we remain within the EU’s sphere of influence. Where everything will be the same as it is now but without us being members. Or we ditch the EU completely and take a cheap as chips option with trading with the rest of the world and in so doing sacrificing our commitment to the Irish border. 

If things do unravel it is of no real benefit to remainers, as in the transition period we will already be outside of the EU. Our Government is only kept in power by the votes of the DUP. When the border problem surfaces they might lose their support, we could be outside the EU and with no Government. Or outside the EU but still following all their rules which will cause the Leave campaigners to go nuts. 

We only have until next March to stop this chaos from happening. But we may well have to endure it as the only way of finally winning our argument.

       Philip Notley      philip@progeuroparty.co.uk

Brexit means (not much will change) Brexit

 Progressive European Party

If you have you seen the film the Producers you will remember that they worked out that if they put on a play that is overprescribed but fails on the first night they can make a fortune because none of the investors would expect any money back. But it all goes terribly wrong because the play is a great success. This reminds me of Brexit because now they have won they have no way of giving anyone what they promised. All they can do is keep being ambiguous and wasting as much time as possible and hope for the best because there is no way they can ever deliver on any of their campaign pledges. 

As Theresa May continues to put forward speech by speech her total lack of a plan where every vague proposal is dismissed out of hand by the EU one comes to realise what a great asset she is to us remainers. I am beginning to think that she is not as incompetent as she looks and is really a highly-trained double agent, skilled in the fine art of deception. Placed there by a secret remain elite to torpedo Brexit right from under the noses of the hard-line brexiteers.

“Alignment” will after all when taken to its logical conclusion produce a Brexit in name only. For the Irish border to be open the same rules have to apply on both sides. With a border running down the Irish sea being totally unpalatable to the DUP and the Northern Irish they represent then the whole of the UK will have to use the same rules. They may not want to, as Corbyn has, call it A Customs union, but that is in essence what it will have to be.

The next Brexit sacred cow to be led to the slaughter could well be immigration. EU immigration has become so vital to our economy and for the smooth running of services, it would be madness to put some arbitrary limitation on it. In any case with our attempt at cherry picking, it is likely that we will be told that we have to take the whole bowl with free movement thrown in.

Brexit, in the end, is likely to be as close to what we have now as is possible. What choice is there other than to try and replicate our EU membership. It is either that or a Liam Fox dystopia.

               Philip Notley          #progEuroparty

Re: Theresa May’s speech

 Progressive European Party

The impression I get from May’s speech is, it's going to be hard, it's going to make problems, but we can get through it. Well we all know that but there is no explanation as to why a prime minister of this country would want to do this to our nation. Where are the benefits. Where is the land of milk and honey, what about the taking back of control, the extra money for the NHS, the regaining of sovereignty, the control of our borders. And all the rest we were promised. There was some vague description of how it might look, what we would stay in and what we would stay out of. But not one word of how any of this would advantage the country in any way.

There is no way we will have regained the control of our borders if the Irish border does stay open. Ireland is not in Schengen, I presume for the same reason that they joined the EU simultaneously to us. In order for our two nations to be in compliance because we have that border. After Brexit there is no reason for them not to join Schengen some time in the future. How will an open border work then. Labour’s vague proposal of us staying in a customs union with the EU is a step forward but would still need passport controls. The border between Norway and Sweden is often put up as an example of how it might work, however they do have the freedom of movement so no passport checks but because Norway is not in the customs union they stop and search vehicles to stop smuggling. Is May’s Government saying that they will turn a blind eye to all smuggling. And what I find the biggest travesty of all she made no mention of the border between Gibraltar and Spain. Make of that what you will

 

   Philip Notley   #progEuroparty

Posts on a Scientists for EU #FBPE‏ Twitter thread

 Progressive European Party

The following is a not untypical “conversation” with a leave voter

progressive #FBPE‏ @Prog_Party Feb 25
The free movement of people is the EU’s greatest achievement. So why do the brexiteers hate it so much

BUTTS
Yea ... if youre Romanian ...

progressive #FBPE‏ @Prog_Party Feb 26
or if your British

BUTTS Feb 26
Why ? Where could you not go before ? .... unless you were a defector only the eastern bloc , life is so good in those countries guess what ?? ..... theyre all here .... kinda makes your argument look a bit daft doesnt it ?

progressive #FBPE‏ @Prog_Party Feb 27
EU nationals coming here is a win win situation They benefit and we benefit Why do you want to stop something that everyone benefits from?

BUTTS Feb 27
Everything is ok in moderation , when it becomes an invasion & creates resource problems please tell me how we benefit ??

progressive #FBPE‏ @Prog_Party Feb 27
European migrants made a net contribution of £20bn to UK public finances between 2000 and 2011

BUTTS Feb 27
Yeah .... lies , damn lies & statistics ... go & get a doctors appointment or get your child in a school .... among a thousand other things ... ive no doubt there are thousands who benefit both themselves & our economy .. ive also no doubt about the thousands who dont .

progressive #FBPE‏ @Prog_Party 10h10 hours ago
Your blaming those who contribute to our society for the under funding policies of our government Why not blame who is responsible

BUTTS 7h7 hours ago
So they all contribute do they ??? If another 10 people came to live in your house , and it was only built for 5 would that not be a problem ? We dont have the resources to keep the world .. how much do you want the govt to fund , remember .. they dont fund it .. YOU do

progressive #FBPE‏ @Prog_Party 6h6 hours ago
Again your blaming those who come here and contribute to our society instead of blaming the Gov for not building the houses we need Very twisted logic Nothing more than scapegoating

BUTTS 7h7 hours ago
Where do you want to build ?? Which bit of we are full do you not get ?? Lets bring em all here eh !! I will pay ... & pay to send money to their kids, i am blaming the govt .... for not stopping it years ago ....

progressive #FBPE‏ @Prog_Party 4m4 minutes ago
You still don’t get it do you, they are not some poor relative that we have to support The NHS needs them industry needs them the Treasury needs the Tax income we benefit enormously by there coming here to work we will suffer economically and socially if we end the free movement

progressive #FBPE‏ @Prog_Party 4m4 minutes ago
of people with EU and we have plenty of space to build more housing and 2 or 3 new towns and space within existing towns Encourage them to come and let them help turn us into the greatest country in europe instead of the insignificant backwater that brexit will turn us into

BUTTS
Theres no cure for stupid ... you made your case pre referendum , it clearly didnt wash .... the majority spoke and we are leaving , all youre doing is trying to bolt the stable door , sorry the horse went last june .... the quiet masses spoke ..... no more , no thanks ...

BUTTS
You dont get it ..... we dont ..there are millions of people either unemployed or on zero hour contracts , we arent importing brain surgeons here ... its mainly an unskilled labour force , and yes , in the main we are supporting a poor relative , or they wouldnt be here .

progressive #FBPE‏ @Prog_Party 3m3 minutes ago
I never made any case before the referendum I’m not trying to bolt the stable door I’m trying to take over the country We are employing brain surgeons most EU migrants are university educated No cure for the stupid you said it not me

BUTTS
“Most EU migrants are university educate” .... congrats on the most deluded dimwitted quote of the week .... which planet are you living on ?? Youre in cloud cuckoo land ...

progressive #FBPE‏
No I only use facts
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/08/mapped-how-britain-has-the-highest-level-of-skilled-migration-in/

The point of view being put forward is something I have come up against before with face to face discussions that I have had with leavers. The EU nationals that come here are uneducated, they are a drain on our resources, they push wages down take jobs from the locals put a strain on the health service and cause overcrowding in our little Island where we have no more room. And so forth. 
Is it worth getting into discussions with someone who it is clear is never going to change their minds on the subject? I think it is. You never know who else is going to read the discourse and to see both arguments side by side could sway someone who previously voted leave to change sides. There is another post that I have not reproduced here where he says the article I gave in support of my assertion that most EU migrants are university graduates in fact does not say that and I should read it more carefully. This total denial of the truth even when it is there in black and white is typical of the leave arguments. 
We must keep engaging with them otherwise they will only talk to like minded people and we tend to do the same. This is especially important to do on the internet because the potential audience is unlimited and after all whether we stay in or leave we all have to somehow get on with each other after this is all over.

                       Philip Notley             #progEuroparty 

Will we regain sovereignty by leaving the EU?

 Progressive European Party

Some people claim that we will we regain sovereignty by leaving the EU

Official EU voting records show that the British government has voted ‘No’ to laws passed at EU level on 56 occasions, abstained 70 times, and voted ‘Yes’ 2,466 times since 1999,
In other words, UK ministers were on the “winning side” 95% of the time, abstained 3% of the time, and were on the losing side 2%.


https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-facts-behind-claims-uk-influence/


This hardly qualifies as a loss of sovereignty.


The only country in the world with complete sovereignty is north Korea. For us to have complete sovereignty we would have to leave the WTO NATO and probably the United Nations as well as the EU. 

"Trade deals" would become virtually impossible.

In the EU we have the benefit of being part of a large bloc that has strong bargaining powers. Outside of it we will not be in the same strong position and would therefore have to give more away to get the deals we want.


Outside the EU we will have less sovereignty than we currently have now as members.


Most decisions made by the EU are taken on a majority vote. So we can, on some occasions, be outvoted. This is a small loss of sovereignty but we are nevertheless a part of the decision-making process and can have an influence over the outcomes. By contrast, if we only use WTO rules we have no control over them whatever. We can only trade under the WTO rules as they currently stand.


Outside the EU our biggest trading partner will still be the EU. So we will still have to follow EU standards on any goods that we sell to them. However, we will no longer have any say in what those requirements will be. In other words, we will have far less sovereignty when trading with the EU than we currently have as members.

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When we do deals with countries such as India and Australia they will want to bring their staff over with their businesses without going through UK Home Office bureaucracy. I am sure that Leavers will say that we can just refuse their demands. As we have just thrown our bargaining chips on the fire along with our EU membership, this would be well-nigh impossible.


The Leave campaign was all about the "taking back of control". What this really meant to many people was depriving EU nationals of the right to come here. Many of our future trade deals will also include free movement of people. The only difference will be that in future more people will be coming from outside of the EU.

How is this a regaining of sovereignty?


There are almost one hundred deals that we now have via our EU membership that we will have to renegotiate. It is highly unlikely that we will get as good a deal with any of them as we currently have now. Each new deal could take many years to negotiate and even more sovereignty will be lost.


Advocates of leave seem to have a totally deluded notion of how the world works and of the UK's place in it.


It seems to me that there is no medicine that can fix our national sickness other than a large and unpalatable dose of reality.


It is all very well for politicians who are not in government to make exaggerated claims about how the world will look when we are on the outside of the EU. However, at present, even our "Government" is also doing exactly that. We may have to wait for the proverbial to hit the fan before normality can be restored.

And "Sovereignty" is the biggest turd of all heading straight towards the Brexit fan.

Philip Notley #progEuroparty

The free movement of people is the EU’s greatest achievement. So why do the brexiteers hate it so much

 Progressive European Party

The EU has immigration guidelines that all members have to adhere to. However in the case of UK and Ireland

“Ireland and the United Kingdom choose, on a case-by-case basis, whether or not to adopt EU rules on immigration, visa and asylum policies”

So when the brexiteers say they are not against immigration, they just want to be able to for example bring doctors from India. We already can. What we can’t do is stop a doctor coming here from France, but why would we want to. None of the leave arguments are rational and most of them are lies or at best distortions of the truth.

EU nationals coming here put a strain on the Health service, we are told. When many of them work in the health service and help to keep it running. And they all have to have health insurance in any case.

The treasury gets a considerable amount of tax revenue from the EU nationals that are working here. More than enough to pay for all the extra  infrastructure costs and with a lot left over.

Seeing as all EU nationals have to have health insurance, and a job or be financially independent, or they can be sent back and seeing as we have the same rights to go there it is hardly something to complain about.

Immigration from the EU is a win win situation. They benefit from coming here, otherwise why would they come. The treasury benefits from the not inconsiderable extra tax revenue. And the whole of our society benefits from the health workers, plumbers, fruit pickers and so forth that we need.

Remind Boris Johnson what he said in December 2016!

With our ageing population we need more people of working age, do we want to be in the situation of having people in their 70’s driving the buses and working on the building sites. Of course we can replace EU immigration with workers from further afield. But what possible advantage would there be in doing so. In any case, the argument from the brexiteers is always about reducing immigration. Remember the “breaking point” poster.

If immigration was considerably reduced it would be disastrous for us. There always seems to be Government targets to reduce immigration down to some level or other by some arbitrary date. There is never a target for an increase. If we did have an increase of EU workers and business our economy would be doing even better. We get no benefit from a German car manufacturer building a factory in Germany. However, if they built it here even if they only employed German staff we would get a great deal of benefit from it. We are in the ludicrous situation of UK businesses advertising abroad for staff while at the same time our Government is trying to bring down immigration. What do they have for breakfast, it's definitely not Weetabix.

  EU migration is falling. But things are getting worse

When we leave the EU it is not membership of the single market or the customs union that we most need to retain. No matter how important both of these are for our economy. The one thing we really need to preserve from our EU membership is the free movement of people. The one thing that the Brexit argument was most desperate to stop is the one thing that we need to keep above all else.

Philip Notley

#progEuroparty