What happens next

 Progressive European Party

Is it time to watch it all unravel

The agreement that is being made for the transition period gives us the right to sign trade deals that will come online when the transition period ends in 2020. We at last can find out if all the talk of “we can trade with the rest of the world” has any substance. Of course we can and will trade with the rest of the world, the test is will any of the deals we get be any improvement on how we trade now.

The time frame of twenty one months from march next year to the end of 2020 is short. Most trade deals take longer than this, therefore because we will be desperate we are likely to be taken to the cleaners by most potential partners who have the luxury of having time on their side. As every month ticks by we will be in a worsening position to make deals from. Almost certainly we will have to take things we wouldn't otherwise want in order to clinch a deal. For example American meat products that are not imported now because they do not pass EU safety and animal welfare standards.

Which then brings us to the border in Ireland. We have also agreed hand on heart, no hard border. This is simply not possible if the standards are not the same on both sides. Electronic tagging is possible like we have in supermarkets when the alarm rings if you try and walk out without paying. But tags can be removed. And how can you stop someone putting a few crates of Irish whiskey unseen in the back a potato truck. It will be easy for someone to put contraband in their shopping bag and take a bus across the border. It is simply not possible to have differing standards with the EU without customs checks. 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------------

With Ireland being in the single market they also have the free movement of people from the EU. Without passport controls on the border any and every EU citizen who should wish to can, via Ireland, enter the UK. With an open border, business will be able to work on either side and therefore will have to follow the same standards. In short, we will need to keep EU standards on all imported goods, on our own manufacturing and on all service industries. As well as maintaining the freedom of movement. We will have to remain permanently under the EU’s sphere of influence. This is the only way it is possible to have an open border. 

The biggest trade deal of all we will need to make is with the EU itself. Food security is the biggest concern, a quarter of all our food is imported from the EU and half of all our trade is also with the EU. 

There only seems to be two possible outcomes, we remain within the EU’s sphere of influence. Where everything will be the same as it is now but without us being members. Or we ditch the EU completely and take a cheap as chips option with trading with the rest of the world and in so doing sacrificing our commitment to the Irish border. 

If things do unravel it is of no real benefit to remainers, as in the transition period we will already be outside of the EU. Our Government is only kept in power by the votes of the DUP. When the border problem surfaces they might lose their support, we could be outside the EU and with no Government. Or outside the EU but still following all their rules which will cause the Leave campaigners to go nuts. 

We only have until next March to stop this chaos from happening. But we may well have to endure it as the only way of finally winning our argument.

       Philip Notley      philip@progeuroparty.co.uk