What happens next

 Progressive European Party

Is it time to watch it all unravel

The agreement that is being made for the transition period gives us the right to sign trade deals that will come online when the transition period ends in 2020. We at last can find out if all the talk of “we can trade with the rest of the world” has any substance. Of course we can and will trade with the rest of the world, the test is will any of the deals we get be any improvement on how we trade now.

The time frame of twenty one months from march next year to the end of 2020 is short. Most trade deals take longer than this, therefore because we will be desperate we are likely to be taken to the cleaners by most potential partners who have the luxury of having time on their side. As every month ticks by we will be in a worsening position to make deals from. Almost certainly we will have to take things we wouldn't otherwise want in order to clinch a deal. For example American meat products that are not imported now because they do not pass EU safety and animal welfare standards.

Which then brings us to the border in Ireland. We have also agreed hand on heart, no hard border. This is simply not possible if the standards are not the same on both sides. Electronic tagging is possible like we have in supermarkets when the alarm rings if you try and walk out without paying. But tags can be removed. And how can you stop someone putting a few crates of Irish whiskey unseen in the back a potato truck. It will be easy for someone to put contraband in their shopping bag and take a bus across the border. It is simply not possible to have differing standards with the EU without customs checks. 

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With Ireland being in the single market they also have the free movement of people from the EU. Without passport controls on the border any and every EU citizen who should wish to can, via Ireland, enter the UK. With an open border, business will be able to work on either side and therefore will have to follow the same standards. In short, we will need to keep EU standards on all imported goods, on our own manufacturing and on all service industries. As well as maintaining the freedom of movement. We will have to remain permanently under the EU’s sphere of influence. This is the only way it is possible to have an open border. 

The biggest trade deal of all we will need to make is with the EU itself. Food security is the biggest concern, a quarter of all our food is imported from the EU and half of all our trade is also with the EU. 

There only seems to be two possible outcomes, we remain within the EU’s sphere of influence. Where everything will be the same as it is now but without us being members. Or we ditch the EU completely and take a cheap as chips option with trading with the rest of the world and in so doing sacrificing our commitment to the Irish border. 

If things do unravel it is of no real benefit to remainers, as in the transition period we will already be outside of the EU. Our Government is only kept in power by the votes of the DUP. When the border problem surfaces they might lose their support, we could be outside the EU and with no Government. Or outside the EU but still following all their rules which will cause the Leave campaigners to go nuts. 

We only have until next March to stop this chaos from happening. But we may well have to endure it as the only way of finally winning our argument.

       Philip Notley      philip@progeuroparty.co.uk

Brexit means (not much will change) Brexit

 Progressive European Party

If you have you seen the film the Producers you will remember that they worked out that if they put on a play that is overprescribed but fails on the first night they can make a fortune because none of the investors would expect any money back. But it all goes terribly wrong because the play is a great success. This reminds me of Brexit because now they have won they have no way of giving anyone what they promised. All they can do is keep being ambiguous and wasting as much time as possible and hope for the best because there is no way they can ever deliver on any of their campaign pledges. 

As Theresa May continues to put forward speech by speech her total lack of a plan where every vague proposal is dismissed out of hand by the EU one comes to realise what a great asset she is to us remainers. I am beginning to think that she is not as incompetent as she looks and is really a highly-trained double agent, skilled in the fine art of deception. Placed there by a secret remain elite to torpedo Brexit right from under the noses of the hard-line brexiteers.

“Alignment” will after all when taken to its logical conclusion produce a Brexit in name only. For the Irish border to be open the same rules have to apply on both sides. With a border running down the Irish sea being totally unpalatable to the DUP and the Northern Irish they represent then the whole of the UK will have to use the same rules. They may not want to, as Corbyn has, call it A Customs union, but that is in essence what it will have to be.

The next Brexit sacred cow to be led to the slaughter could well be immigration. EU immigration has become so vital to our economy and for the smooth running of services, it would be madness to put some arbitrary limitation on it. In any case with our attempt at cherry picking, it is likely that we will be told that we have to take the whole bowl with free movement thrown in.

Brexit, in the end, is likely to be as close to what we have now as is possible. What choice is there other than to try and replicate our EU membership. It is either that or a Liam Fox dystopia.

               Philip Notley          #progEuroparty

Re: Theresa May’s speech

 Progressive European Party

The impression I get from May’s speech is, it's going to be hard, it's going to make problems, but we can get through it. Well we all know that but there is no explanation as to why a prime minister of this country would want to do this to our nation. Where are the benefits. Where is the land of milk and honey, what about the taking back of control, the extra money for the NHS, the regaining of sovereignty, the control of our borders. And all the rest we were promised. There was some vague description of how it might look, what we would stay in and what we would stay out of. But not one word of how any of this would advantage the country in any way.

There is no way we will have regained the control of our borders if the Irish border does stay open. Ireland is not in Schengen, I presume for the same reason that they joined the EU simultaneously to us. In order for our two nations to be in compliance because we have that border. After Brexit there is no reason for them not to join Schengen some time in the future. How will an open border work then. Labour’s vague proposal of us staying in a customs union with the EU is a step forward but would still need passport controls. The border between Norway and Sweden is often put up as an example of how it might work, however they do have the freedom of movement so no passport checks but because Norway is not in the customs union they stop and search vehicles to stop smuggling. Is May’s Government saying that they will turn a blind eye to all smuggling. And what I find the biggest travesty of all she made no mention of the border between Gibraltar and Spain. Make of that what you will

 

   Philip Notley   #progEuroparty